Let's examine briefly on of the most space taking issue in Singapore: Motor vehicles. Roads seems to take up the most space in Singapore, it is one of the key features of our highly urbanised nation. Most roads cannot be stacked up and that is a concern given the lack of space.
In our highly dense population, there are many cars in our country as well, this causes congestion. And in a car, if there is only 1 driver, the car takes up the most amount of space as there are 4 empty seats. Please note this is not a tree-hugging environmental post. There will be no pictures of birds soaked in oil.
Every day, almost every main roads and highways will be congested. It forces some to give up driving and take public transport but for most people, their destination is not very accessible. One thing I do not like is how charges or other fancy words is always implemented to tackle these issues.
- Too many people taking trains and causing it to over load and break down. Adjust fares (please look at SMRT's balance sheet every year)
- Car park operators deals with rising costs? Increase rates (despite making profits year on year)
- Too little taxi during peak hour? Taxi company operating costs increasing? Taxi drivers complaining lack of business? Varying percentage surcharges in place 16 hours a day on top of regular taxi fares.
Let's look at some solutions in place dealing with road congestion:
- COE:
Abstract - "Between 1975 and 1990, the growth rate of the car population was as high as 12 percent per annum before the recession of 1985. To ensure that Singapore roads would be smooth-flowing, the government undertook a combination of usage and ownership measures."
source: source article titled: Certificate of Entitlement
This system has been in place for more than 25 years now, has it worked? I would think it worked but is it natural or is it an instance of overkill where you try to shoot down a housefly with an automatic rifle?
Year 2006 - 2007 private vehicle population increased by about 7%.
Year 2010 - 2011 private vehicle population increased by about 1.8%
Year 2015 - 2016 private vehicle population reduced by: 2.9%
Source
While on the off hand, it seemed that it worked, but the underlying problem is still persistent or else you will be driving on smoother roads.
What is happening is that despite cars population decrease, there is an increase in Rental cars population.
Year 2006 - 2007 private rental vehicle population increased by about 19%.
Year 2015 - 2016 private rental vehicle population increased by about: 74.79%
Another possible explanation for the decrease in 2015 - 2016 would be the de-registration of the 10 year old cars from 2006. The problem is only being scratched that the surface, like de-rusting without adding primers to ensure the rust problem doesn't come back.
The problems foresighted or faced back then still persists till today. If you are a patient with a doctor feeding you expensive medicine for 25 years without proper cure, will you change your doctor?
+++
ERP was another solution to tackle the congestion issues. Though started mainly in town area, it has since been planted at highway at various heartlands in Singapore, for instance, the ERP at Clementi can cost up to $3.
Now there are also developments to bill ERP using GPS and satellite. Without being fanciful, isn't that tracking your vehicle position at all times? Why is the application not used in crime fighting or tracking traffic jams from the sky?
It is true that the ERP system works to a certain extend, but it doesn't help the situation. People who need to drive into town have to consider this whereas people who are affluent would not be bothered.
To some people, when a problem can be resolved with money, then it isn't a problem anymore. The poor salesman to make ends meet has to have a car to drive around to conduct business. The rich people who drive into town to do their daily shopping can buy multiple cars just because they can. It does not stop the problem of congestion, it doesn't solve the problem. The only thing reducing the car population is that there aren't many people who can afford to own cars.
Solutions should stop the issue completely, it may not be immediate but it should stop it from recurring. The solutions are being proposed all over the internet. By strictly issuing COEs and not having people bid for it, you can properly control Vehicle population. Too many cars on the road? don't issue so much, cut down the COE payment issue. It is a mockery to be paying 3x the price of a new car as compared to other countries,
I hope the relevant authorities can look into long term solutions that resolve issues at the root cause.
Tuesday, January 24, 2017
Sunday, January 8, 2017
Efficiency
Efficiency comparison:
"In August, the Land Transport Authority and SMRT announced plans to lower the speeds of escalators at train stations, following a recommendation, to make it safer for senior citizens.
Work began in August to modify 233 escalators in 42 of 54 stations along the North-South and East-West lines. It is due to be completed by 2021."
Quoted from: 64-year-old in coma after MRT escalator fall, published Nov 16, 2016, 5:00 AM SGT
Versus
Think about the above, both of them are also 'public' transport. I feel that public transport should have some form of social responsibility in terms of providing service and not be profit driven nor should it be a publicly traded equity (at least it used to be, now it is privatised)
In SMRT's defense, the escalator incident is allegedly user's unstable footing that caused the fall.
The repaired-in-48-hour-sinkhole sunken again a few days later and was repaired again.
The repaired-in-48-hour-sinkhole sunken again a few days later and was repaired again.
Tuesday, January 3, 2017
Is Housing Expensive?
Housing is cheap, but the cost of money is expensive.
Lets look at how much you will pay (assume split half with spouse)
Take a S$300,000 HDB for example (loan amount will be S$270,000):
10 years loan:
Monthly payment: $1280
Total interest paid in 10 years: $36,910
15 years loan:
Monthly payment: $907 (-$373)
Total interest paid in 15 years: $56,352 (+$19442)
20 years loan:
Monthly payment: $722 (-$185)
Total interest paid in 20 years: $76,543 (+$20191)
25 years loan:
Monthly payment: $613 (-$109)
Total interest paid in 25 years: $97,472 (+$20929)
In short, 3 things:
1) it costs $97,472 to borrow $270,000 from HDB
2) it costs about another $127,000 to borrow the money from CPF to pay loan HDB due to accrued interest which you have to pay your own CPF
3) based on my own views and understanding, if wrong, please let me know, don't sue me.
Don't listen to people who tell you to spend all your CPF money on paying your house unless you are able to pay and still meet the minimum sum when you reach 55. Whether you can reach or not is another matter.
Lets look at how much you will pay (assume split half with spouse)
Take a S$300,000 HDB for example (loan amount will be S$270,000):
10 years loan:
Monthly payment: $1280
Total interest paid in 10 years: $36,910
15 years loan:
Monthly payment: $907 (-$373)
Total interest paid in 15 years: $56,352 (+$19442)
20 years loan:
Monthly payment: $722 (-$185)
Total interest paid in 20 years: $76,543 (+$20191)
25 years loan:
Monthly payment: $613 (-$109)
Total interest paid in 25 years: $97,472 (+$20929)
In short, 3 things:
1) it costs $97,472 to borrow $270,000 from HDB
2) it costs about another $127,000 to borrow the money from CPF to pay loan HDB due to accrued interest which you have to pay your own CPF
3) based on my own views and understanding, if wrong, please let me know, don't sue me.
Don't listen to people who tell you to spend all your CPF money on paying your house unless you are able to pay and still meet the minimum sum when you reach 55. Whether you can reach or not is another matter.
Monday, January 2, 2017
Done and DONE
2nd Season
My posts awhile back are quite rage-y and hate-fueled. I put this on my lack of sleep. But its mostly my nature of being a grouchy irritable guy.
Anyways, here's a restart, why?
Because I believe we in Singapore have a identity, a culture, a lifestyle. It is very derivatives, mostly from western culture (more on the culture thing later), but I hope to take the best or preferred choice for me. Sometimes I tend to do things just for the heck of it.
Somethings will be oddly racist, stereotypes exists like smoke with fire. (I personally have good friends of all races, we make jokes about each others race with respect and FOR HUMOUR ONLY)
Not hateful but I'm born bred Singaporean, I don't like it when I turn on the TV (which I hardly watch due to bad programming), some foreigner professor in local Universities will talk about Singapore. The worse is when they speak out unfavourably, or worse when they talk about sensitive subjects and when people watch it, they think these foreigners represent our views as a country.
Singapore Culture???
Do we really have a culture as Singaporeans?
Whatever culture means on Oxford dictionary, culture to me means whenever someone says, "That is so Singaporean", "typical Singaporean".
We derive our culture from many other cultures, it is no shame in that, it is how culture starts. Look up the origins of Christmas on google. We should extract the best or preferred ways, fuse it with a bit of Singapore flavour and we are good to go. Over time, we shall explore more on this.
People say we are a young nation, we do not have any culture or history. Damn right we don't! Neither do we have the plague or all the bad things that happen in history. We do not have the history...YET! We are literally history in the making, we all are. People who brag about their history tend to behave as if they worked hard for it or choose it. They are born into it. Nothing to be proud about. Taking pride in something and being proud about it is completely different things.
Anyhow, lets get going.
My posts awhile back are quite rage-y and hate-fueled. I put this on my lack of sleep. But its mostly my nature of being a grouchy irritable guy.
Anyways, here's a restart, why?
Because I believe we in Singapore have a identity, a culture, a lifestyle. It is very derivatives, mostly from western culture (more on the culture thing later), but I hope to take the best or preferred choice for me. Sometimes I tend to do things just for the heck of it.
Somethings will be oddly racist, stereotypes exists like smoke with fire. (I personally have good friends of all races, we make jokes about each others race with respect and FOR HUMOUR ONLY)
Not hateful but I'm born bred Singaporean, I don't like it when I turn on the TV (which I hardly watch due to bad programming), some foreigner professor in local Universities will talk about Singapore. The worse is when they speak out unfavourably, or worse when they talk about sensitive subjects and when people watch it, they think these foreigners represent our views as a country.
When we watch TV, don't we tend to scoff more than agree? That's a bad sign.
Singapore Culture???
Do we really have a culture as Singaporeans?
Whatever culture means on Oxford dictionary, culture to me means whenever someone says, "That is so Singaporean", "typical Singaporean".
We derive our culture from many other cultures, it is no shame in that, it is how culture starts. Look up the origins of Christmas on google. We should extract the best or preferred ways, fuse it with a bit of Singapore flavour and we are good to go. Over time, we shall explore more on this.
People say we are a young nation, we do not have any culture or history. Damn right we don't! Neither do we have the plague or all the bad things that happen in history. We do not have the history...YET! We are literally history in the making, we all are. People who brag about their history tend to behave as if they worked hard for it or choose it. They are born into it. Nothing to be proud about. Taking pride in something and being proud about it is completely different things.
Anyhow, lets get going.
Thursday, May 12, 2016
friday 13: sniffing out the bullshits for you
Be very mindful when reading up project details of EC, they are also done up by Singaporeans like you and I based on publicly available information.
Nonetheless let's see the bulls**t found:
A few ECs launched in end 2015 in Choa Chu Kang area marketing the completion of a Hillion Mall which is an integrated shopping mall in Bukit Panjang, despite them both being very far from the respective EC's, it is still described as being 'nearby' it.
screen shot of Sol-Acres website.
Not to say for certain it is a bad property, but see the updated on Sep 28, 2015? It says upcoming Hillion Mall will be ready by 2016.
Today (May 13, 2016) if you go look at the site of Hillion Mall, it is like looking at a tree in a forest and say it is ready made furniture.
Some articles/web pages:
Straits Times article published on June 28, 2015, 5:50 am
Bukit Panjang transport hub delayed
From the mall's developer's web
Hillion Mall Project
Are these developers going to come off as didn't properly fact check? or are they trying something else?
Nonetheless let's see the bulls**t found:
A few ECs launched in end 2015 in Choa Chu Kang area marketing the completion of a Hillion Mall which is an integrated shopping mall in Bukit Panjang, despite them both being very far from the respective EC's, it is still described as being 'nearby' it.
Not to say for certain it is a bad property, but see the updated on Sep 28, 2015? It says upcoming Hillion Mall will be ready by 2016.
Today (May 13, 2016) if you go look at the site of Hillion Mall, it is like looking at a tree in a forest and say it is ready made furniture.
Some articles/web pages:
Straits Times article published on June 28, 2015, 5:50 am
Bukit Panjang transport hub delayed
From the mall's developer's web
Hillion Mall Project
Are these developers going to come off as didn't properly fact check? or are they trying something else?
Thursday, May 5, 2016
Executive Condo as Investments?
I'm sure many people will tell you that EC is an excellent investment and that property always go up and never go down. But being the cynical person that I'm lets look at the maths as numbers never lie.
Consider buying an EC for investment to sell once it is privatised. Lets say for instance, you bought a nice swanky 3 bedroom unit in Yishun for $800,000 which is the price range for most EC, let's not talk about $ psf because the numbers are generally misleading.
misleading how?
simple, you cannot sell half of your unit right?
Back to topic, for $800k, most people will hold out for about 5-10 years before. I've seen some people say 5-10 years, it gets confusing but it does not matter. Let us say 5 year (to make it more advantageous to those who say it is profitable.)
On year 5, you sell the unit for $1,000,000. Ka-ching! It is a profit of $200,000 or 25%. But is it real profit?
But hold yourhorses houses, let's put some things into perspective for you. For $800k to be a million in 5 years, the compound interest % is about 4.5% Meaning to say, every year, the value of the $800k unit goes up by 4.5%
It is something like this:
Bought: $800k
Year 1: $836k
Year 2: $874k
Year 3: $913k
Year 4: $954k
Year 5: $997k (or close to a million)
Lets put in the amount of money you have to fork out before you talk about selling it or realising it for profit.
When you buy a EC, you can only take bank loan, being the friendly neighbourhood banks, they will offer you a 3 year fix rate loan for 30 years or rather, but lets put the interest rates at 2% fixed for 30 years which is an extremely attractive and un-do-able interest rate, to skew things in favour of buying an EC, lets keep the interest rates low.
This is the loan repayment for a $800k flat at 2%, by year 5, you will have paid $5300+ for interest only which is very low.
so far, the costs for 5 years of EC ownership is: $805300
what about properties agent's commission? 1% commission for selling at $1 mil is $10,000.
Now, your cost is about $815300k.
We can go further to add renovation costs, maintenance costs, utilities and many more to up the costs for owning an EC for 5 years before selling. If the interest rates is 2.5% fixed 3 years and increased to 3% for year 4 and year 5, you have to pay about $1500 more just for interest alone.
If we were to factor in a low inflation of about 2-3% annually, the unit is actually losing money rather than earning when you sell it for a million.
It doesn't matter if you do not see it the way I see things, but given a very positive scenario, we are barely making a profit from buying an EC, so I hope more buyers will just take into account of these following factors that property agents do not mention when trying to market you an EC unit.
So far I have never seen any property agent able to confirm true profits of EC using maths. Then again, I have not met much property agents.
Yet on the other hand, at it's high point, BTOs bought in Punggol were selling for 3 times its purchased price, even if held for 10 years, it is more than 10% annually. If it sold for twice it's purchased price, holding for 10 years, the rate of return is more than 7% not to mention HDB loans are at 2.6%. If that is not good debt, I don't know what is.
In closing
As always, it is a good mental exercise to do some maths every now and then when it involves a large sum of money. Especially your own money!
Things aren't what they always seemed to be, do not take people's word for it.
Consider buying an EC for investment to sell once it is privatised. Lets say for instance, you bought a nice swanky 3 bedroom unit in Yishun for $800,000 which is the price range for most EC, let's not talk about $ psf because the numbers are generally misleading.
misleading how?
simple, you cannot sell half of your unit right?
Back to topic, for $800k, most people will hold out for about 5-10 years before. I've seen some people say 5-10 years, it gets confusing but it does not matter. Let us say 5 year (to make it more advantageous to those who say it is profitable.)
On year 5, you sell the unit for $1,000,000. Ka-ching! It is a profit of $200,000 or 25%. But is it real profit?
But hold your
It is something like this:
Bought: $800k
Year 1: $836k
Year 2: $874k
Year 3: $913k
Year 4: $954k
Year 5: $997k (or close to a million)
Lets put in the amount of money you have to fork out before you talk about selling it or realising it for profit.
When you buy a EC, you can only take bank loan, being the friendly neighbourhood banks, they will offer you a 3 year fix rate loan for 30 years or rather, but lets put the interest rates at 2% fixed for 30 years which is an extremely attractive and un-do-able interest rate, to skew things in favour of buying an EC, lets keep the interest rates low.
This is the loan repayment for a $800k flat at 2%, by year 5, you will have paid $5300+ for interest only which is very low.
so far, the costs for 5 years of EC ownership is: $805300
what about properties agent's commission? 1% commission for selling at $1 mil is $10,000.
Now, your cost is about $815300k.
We can go further to add renovation costs, maintenance costs, utilities and many more to up the costs for owning an EC for 5 years before selling. If the interest rates is 2.5% fixed 3 years and increased to 3% for year 4 and year 5, you have to pay about $1500 more just for interest alone.
If we were to factor in a low inflation of about 2-3% annually, the unit is actually losing money rather than earning when you sell it for a million.
It doesn't matter if you do not see it the way I see things, but given a very positive scenario, we are barely making a profit from buying an EC, so I hope more buyers will just take into account of these following factors that property agents do not mention when trying to market you an EC unit.
So far I have never seen any property agent able to confirm true profits of EC using maths. Then again, I have not met much property agents.
Yet on the other hand, at it's high point, BTOs bought in Punggol were selling for 3 times its purchased price, even if held for 10 years, it is more than 10% annually. If it sold for twice it's purchased price, holding for 10 years, the rate of return is more than 7% not to mention HDB loans are at 2.6%. If that is not good debt, I don't know what is.
In closing
As always, it is a good mental exercise to do some maths every now and then when it involves a large sum of money. Especially your own money!
Things aren't what they always seemed to be, do not take people's word for it.
Monday, March 28, 2016
About the Stock Market
Most Chinese in Singapore would have heard of or are avid fans of the variety show "隐藏的歌手 Talent Singer"
The premise is very simple, each episode revolves around a famous singer plus a few voice imitators. Each round they will be randomly assigned to a closed booth and they will be cued to sing bits of the famous songs from the episode's guest star singer. At the end of the singing, the audience together with various talking celebrity guests will try and guess which is the real singer and vote who they think is the real singer. Upon revealing the votes, the lest voted will be 'disqualified' from the next round of singing and guessing.
Most part of the show revolves around the reactions of the celebrity guests as they talk it out who they think is the bona fide singer. Each episode typically have one 'best friend celebrity' in the mix. More often than not hilarity ensues regardless of their guesses/votes/outcome.
If I could not explain it clearly, please look at the video below. Even non-mandarin speaking people can figure out what is going on more or less.
Apart from the entertainment this show brings about, I would like readers, to understand that this is exactly how the stock market works.
In each episode, it is not uncommon for the original singer to be voted out midway. As more often than not, singer's voice change over time and modern music recording techniques tend to alter the voice through sound engineering and manipulation (aka auto tune).
The people involved:
The singers (original singer and imitators) = the stock counters, their voices are the company's balance sheets/income statements/annual reports.
The celebrity guests = the various stock brokers, financial institutes, big banks who provides commentary on which they think is the real singer.
The rest of the audiences = general investors
How it is the same?
No matter how these singers guess, never have all of them been able to be consistently correct. Even those industry veterans who supposedly have a very good ear for sound, they are able to guess wrongly. And some case, be very very wrong when they even cock-surely declare one particular booth is most definitely not the original singer when it really is.
This has happened all the time, it gets to be even more ridiculous when they try to refer to previous rounds or build confidence based on previous round's results.
The audiences, being non-professionals, will be more or less swayed by the celebrity guests' discussions and votes. Evident by the tabulated results.
Of course, no way is this show going to teach you how to pick stocks, but this show is one of the best ways to show you how the stock market behaves and reacts. It is a good lesson to follow and learn from. Literally, learn how to listen and siphon through the noise.
"Oil price up, stock market will go up"
"Oil price up, USD will go down as commodity is opposite of currencies"
"USD up, stock market will go up too"
These are the three most common fairy dust, magic bean, medicated oil sales pitch used. If history is any indicator...(you complete the sentence however way you want to).
The premise is very simple, each episode revolves around a famous singer plus a few voice imitators. Each round they will be randomly assigned to a closed booth and they will be cued to sing bits of the famous songs from the episode's guest star singer. At the end of the singing, the audience together with various talking celebrity guests will try and guess which is the real singer and vote who they think is the real singer. Upon revealing the votes, the lest voted will be 'disqualified' from the next round of singing and guessing.
Most part of the show revolves around the reactions of the celebrity guests as they talk it out who they think is the bona fide singer. Each episode typically have one 'best friend celebrity' in the mix. More often than not hilarity ensues regardless of their guesses/votes/outcome.
If I could not explain it clearly, please look at the video below. Even non-mandarin speaking people can figure out what is going on more or less.
Apart from the entertainment this show brings about, I would like readers, to understand that this is exactly how the stock market works.
In each episode, it is not uncommon for the original singer to be voted out midway. As more often than not, singer's voice change over time and modern music recording techniques tend to alter the voice through sound engineering and manipulation (aka auto tune).
The people involved:
The singers (original singer and imitators) = the stock counters, their voices are the company's balance sheets/income statements/annual reports.
The celebrity guests = the various stock brokers, financial institutes, big banks who provides commentary on which they think is the real singer.
The rest of the audiences = general investors
How it is the same?
No matter how these singers guess, never have all of them been able to be consistently correct. Even those industry veterans who supposedly have a very good ear for sound, they are able to guess wrongly. And some case, be very very wrong when they even cock-surely declare one particular booth is most definitely not the original singer when it really is.
This has happened all the time, it gets to be even more ridiculous when they try to refer to previous rounds or build confidence based on previous round's results.
The audiences, being non-professionals, will be more or less swayed by the celebrity guests' discussions and votes. Evident by the tabulated results.
Of course, no way is this show going to teach you how to pick stocks, but this show is one of the best ways to show you how the stock market behaves and reacts. It is a good lesson to follow and learn from. Literally, learn how to listen and siphon through the noise.
"Oil price up, stock market will go up"
"Oil price up, USD will go down as commodity is opposite of currencies"
"USD up, stock market will go up too"
These are the three most common fairy dust, magic bean, medicated oil sales pitch used. If history is any indicator...(you complete the sentence however way you want to).
Just so you know...
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