friday 13: sniffing out the bullshits for you

Be very mindful when reading up project details of EC, they are also done up by Singaporeans like you and I based on publicly available information.

Nonetheless let's see the bulls**t found:

A few ECs launched in end 2015 in Choa Chu Kang area marketing the completion of a Hillion Mall which is an integrated shopping mall in Bukit Panjang, despite them both being very far from the respective EC's, it is still described as being 'nearby' it.

screen shot of Sol-Acres website.

Not to say for certain it is a bad property, but see the updated on Sep 28, 2015? It says upcoming Hillion Mall will be ready by 2016.

Today (May 13, 2016) if you go look at the site of Hillion Mall, it is like looking at a tree in a forest and say it is ready made furniture.

Some articles/web pages:
Straits Times article published on June 28, 2015, 5:50 am
Bukit Panjang transport hub delayed

From the mall's developer's web
Hillion Mall Project

Are these developers going to come off as didn't properly fact check? or are they trying something else?

Executive Condo as Investments?

I'm sure many people will tell you that EC is an excellent investment and that property always go up and never go down. But being the cynical person that I'm lets look at the maths as numbers never lie.

Consider buying an EC for investment to sell once it is privatised. Lets say for instance, you bought a nice swanky 3 bedroom unit in Yishun for $800,000 which is the price range for most EC, let's not talk about $ psf because the numbers are generally misleading.

misleading how?
simple, you cannot sell half of your unit right?

Back to topic, for $800k, most people will hold out for about 5-10 years before. I've seen some people say 5-10 years, it gets confusing but it does not matter. Let us say 5 year (to make it more advantageous to those who say it is profitable.)

On year 5, you sell the unit for $1,000,000. Ka-ching! It is a profit of $200,000 or 25%. But is it real profit? 


But hold your horses houses, let's put some things into perspective for you. For $800k to be a million in 5 years, the compound interest % is about 4.5% Meaning to say, every year, the value of the $800k unit goes up by 4.5%

It is something like this:
Bought: $800k
Year 1: $836k
Year 2: $874k
Year 3: $913k
Year 4: $954k
Year 5: $997k (or close to a million)

Lets put in the amount of money you have to fork out before you talk about selling it or realising it for profit.

When you buy a EC, you can only take bank loan, being the friendly neighbourhood banks, they will offer you a 3 year fix rate loan for 30 years or rather, but lets put the interest rates at 2% fixed for 30 years which is an extremely attractive and un-do-able interest rate, to skew things in favour of buying an EC, lets keep the interest rates low.

This is the loan repayment for a $800k flat at 2%, by year 5, you will have paid $5300+ for interest only which is very low.

so far, the costs for 5 years of EC ownership is: $805300

what about properties agent's commission? 1% commission for selling at $1 mil is $10,000.

Now, your cost is about $815300k.

We can go further to add renovation costs, maintenance costs, utilities and many more to up the costs for owning an EC for 5 years before selling. If the interest rates is 2.5% fixed 3 years and increased to 3% for year 4 and year 5, you have to pay about $1500 more just for interest alone.

If we were to factor in a low inflation of about 2-3% annually, the unit is actually losing money rather than earning when you sell it for a million.

It doesn't matter if you do not see it the way I see things, but given a very positive scenario, we are barely making a profit from buying an EC, so I hope more buyers will just take into account of these following factors that property agents do not mention when trying to market you an EC unit.

So far I have never seen any property agent able to confirm true profits of EC using maths. Then again, I have not met much property agents.

Yet on the other hand, at it's high point, BTOs bought in Punggol were selling for 3 times its purchased price, even if held for 10 years, it is more than 10% annually. If it sold for twice it's purchased price, holding for 10 years, the rate of return is more than 7% not to mention HDB loans are at 2.6%. If that is not good debt, I don't know what is.


In closing
As always, it is a good mental exercise to do some maths every now and then when it involves a large sum of money. Especially your own money!

Things aren't what they always seemed to be, do not take people's word for it.

About the Stock Market

Most Chinese in Singapore would have heard of or are avid fans of the variety show "隐藏的歌手 Talent Singer"

The premise is very simple, each episode revolves around a famous singer plus a few voice imitators. Each round they will be randomly assigned to a closed booth and they will be cued to sing bits of the famous songs from the episode's guest star singer. At the end of the singing, the audience together with various talking celebrity guests will try and guess which is the real singer and vote who they think is the real singer. Upon revealing the votes, the lest voted will be 'disqualified' from the next round of singing and guessing.

Most part of the show revolves around the reactions of the celebrity guests as they talk it out who they think is the bona fide singer. Each episode typically have one 'best friend celebrity' in the mix. More often than not hilarity ensues regardless of their guesses/votes/outcome.

If I could not explain it clearly, please look at the video below. Even non-mandarin speaking people can figure out what is going on more or less.

Apart from the entertainment this show brings about, I would like readers, to understand that this is exactly how the stock market works.

In each episode, it is not uncommon for the original singer to be voted out midway. As more often than not, singer's voice change over time and modern music recording techniques tend to alter the voice through sound engineering and manipulation (aka auto tune).

The people involved:
The singers (original singer and imitators) = the stock counters, their voices are the company's balance sheets/income statements/annual reports.

The celebrity guests = the various stock brokers, financial institutes, big banks who provides commentary on which they think is the real singer.

The rest of the audiences = general investors


How it is the same?
No matter how these singers guess, never have all of them been able to be consistently correct. Even those industry veterans who supposedly have a very good ear for sound, they are able to guess wrongly. And some case, be very very wrong when they even cock-surely declare one particular booth is most definitely not the original singer when it really is.

This has happened all the time, it gets to be even more ridiculous when they try to refer to previous rounds or build confidence based on previous round's results.

The audiences, being non-professionals, will be more or less swayed by the celebrity guests' discussions and votes. Evident by the tabulated results.


Of course, no way is this show going to teach you how to pick stocks, but this show is one of the best ways to show you how the stock market behaves and reacts. It is a good lesson to follow and learn from. Literally, learn how to listen and siphon through the noise.

"Oil price up, stock market will go up"
"Oil price up, USD will go down as commodity is opposite of currencies"
"USD up, stock market will go up too"

These are the three most common fairy dust, magic bean, medicated oil sales pitch used. If history is any indicator...(you complete the sentence however way you want to).

Just so you know...

Analog-y: Specifications of Consumer Electronics

Although I preach a lot about being analog, but do take note that being analog does not mean shunning technology. In fact, for my age of 27 as of writing, I have lived in the transitional period in advancements.

Classrooms changed from chalkboards to use whiteboards with printing functions, nowadays, classrooms uses laptops/tablets to conduct lessons. It is engaging to say the least as it brings aesthetics to the students which I think is helpful for creativity growing up. 

Technology is inevitable:

"kids are born into an era where from infancy, they see more camera lenses of smart phones than actual human faces."

The question is:

Have we ever stopped and think if "it" is necessary? By "it" I meant these technological advances. Again, I do not mean the capability of advancement, I meant the constant need to upgrade. 

At times, I blame the marketing department for promoting useless things for profit (case in point: but that in essence is the hardest thing to do in marketing right?) Lets quickly look at some of the things where our judgement is clouded due to specs. I'm not going to lay out any specs as you can look it up yourself, I'm just going to write based on my own personal experiences.

Now when people buy any consumer electronics, they will look at the specs and price before looking at the actual product, as if they will be tested in some user qualification and proficiency exam next week or otherwise the product will be taken from you.

Phones

This is the most commonly argued topic every 6 months when a new phone comes out, this versus that. Apple vs Android. 

I have used an Apple iPhone 5S and a Samsung S5 concurrently before. Apple is my personal phone just because I get android phones provided by office. I use them both for work and entertainment, whichever is within grasp. I have to say, the overall user experience after owning them for 1 year is quite clear, Apple being the older design (iPhone 5S Oct 2013, Samsung S5 Apr 2014), does perform more reliably and simpler to use.

The iPhone just works, it does not list out it's specs to compare with other phones, it just works. The Samsung, although initially faster, starts to lag after 8 months of usage. No point having a super computer spec-ed phone when it is so laggy after 8 months of usage right? Not to mention Apple's bloat ware do not hinder as much as Android and Samsung's (I seriously hate Samsung's and Singtel's ultra useless bloatware and you still glitched and gave away private information of other customers)

That being said, Androids are easy to use for emailing and watching videos. But for communication , Facebook, games, general app usage, charging speed, form factor, function factor, shelf life, and reliability over a long time iPhone takes the lead. 

Television

When I was young, TVs were fat and phones can be used as a weapon. Now TVs are slimmer than brick phones, and have Android systems within it. 

720p, 1080p and recently Ultra HD 4K (I wonder what funny names will they come up next, cosmic clarity/reality vision/real view 12K Super Duper Ultra HD abbreviated SDUHD)

When I stand in an array of TV, I really could not discern between 720p or 1080p much less UHD 4K which is it's trade name, when in fact Ultra HD 4K is technically 2160p (you know that right? Or are you a sheep that buys whatever people tell you to?) 

It is the same with music players, the media format and quality is just as important as the medium, no point having UUUUUHDTV when you plug it into normal TV or watch 1080p movies. It's like loading nerf gun rounds to a Barret M82. 

"Isn't it funny when your TV has more resolution than you in life?"

Computers

Nuff said, all generic windows laptop lags, just suck it up and pay for new one. And Apple is intimidating to use for windows users. 

*whipsers: anyone mentioned Linux? 

Laptops used to dominate IT Shows but now it is like the airline industry in an eternal arms race. Portability vs specs vs hardware vs software, it has come to the point where most 'flagship' laptops offer the same programs with plenty of bloatware by their own company. 

There is also the case of focusing on packaging, cased in full aluminium alloys and has all the curves. Best is to understand your own usage when choosing laptops.

Portable Music Players

This is where sky is the limit, audiophiles gone wild, high end audio equipment starts being portable and everyone is taking it to the streets with their custom IEMs and super expensive Music players listening to songs that weren't even recorded with that much clarity in the first place. 

It bugs me out to see people listen to Meh-gan Trainor's: Like I'm Gonna Lose You in loseless format when it is very autotuned by computers in the first place.

Jazz I can understand if fans want to hear Gonsalves catch his breath between breaks, but I find it to be very pointless and the fun of listening to music is lost when listeners are trying to catch such clarity but forget the music.

Fridges

Do we need 5 doors and 20 storage drawers? What is this? An 'apothecary' fridge to store the 100 varieties of drugs and substances? Not much advances have been made in energy efficiency, yet we get fridges that makes ice in 20 gradations of crush-iness.  A fridge is a fridge, open, put your stuff inside, close.

+++++

Sometimes we get are mesmerised by the sales pitch that we forget we look exactly like that with better skin condition.

That all being said, there is also the factor of phasing out of products or discontinuing support for older products to consider when buying new stuff. But that is how the money world works. For example, a street lamp post : at 5 years of age, it is removed entirely with the ground cemented then again drilled to install the same design but new (probably refurbished) street lamp post with another bulb. It is pointless but money changes hands and it makes some people rich so they are ok and we as ordinary folks have no choice but to suck our own thumbs and watch. However, do not change out your iPhone every time a new one is released. 

Then again, this is not applicable if you genuinely have an interest in Tech. This is only for the good ordinary folks. What do you think?

Thrown-back for real: using flip phone

So recently I got tricked by this

Whoever came up with this, I hope you fall down everyday and only get flesh wounds that hurts in the showers.

Anyhow, I am one of the victims, I blame myself for that too. Now I do not have a iPhone to use, I felt quite naked at first, I have another android phone for work, but it is those low end for the basic stuff, I am not a iFanboy but then it is simple to use and neat looking.

This iPhone has done quite a few nonsense with me and every time, a reset would be able to quickly resolve it. This time, I wasn't able to restore my phone at all. This is the saddening part.

So I had to use this phone for the next few weeks until apple comes up with a good fix or I get a new iPhone.

I introduce you the Samsung E1195.

This phone used to be ideal for army camps where no camera phones is allowed, and I had it as I was going to ORD from my NS. So I had this phone for just in case. Anyhow, this phone has a feature I hadn't experienced in a long time.

The crazy long battery life.

It was 3/5 bars yesterday night, and even after sending some SMS (yes, SMS, cannnot whatsapp) and making few calls, it still remained there till now almost 20 hours later. I might have misplaced the proprietary charger but I am not quite worried about draining out. I believe this phone's last battery bar can last longer than an iPhone's full charge battery due to its lack of functions.

This isn't anything to do with being Analog, the tactile buttons are hard to get used to and I prefer qwerty typing. But it is all I have now, this phone takes the normal sim card but the iphone 5s uses a nano sim card, but I just put it there and it fits quite snugly, if it comes loose, I'll pop the back open and adjust.

The clamshell phone may seem obsolete but it is just targeted at another group of phone users who only talk and text a little. The speed dial helps as well, being forced to go back to basics may not be a bad thing afterall.

However, this period of throwing back is not to brag on the social media, in fact, I do miss the iPhone and will be more appreciative of it. This will be dubbed as the iPhone crisis that hit me in early 2016.

Analog: is it Minimalism?

Being analog is just a name I gave to this way of life, some people may have been unknowingly been analog their whole life. 

It is not about shunning technology or modernisation, in fact, it embraces true innovation.

It is not being beggar-like frugal, but it is about having a happy wallet that sustains your hobbies and keeping yourself happy.

It is not only minimalism or de-cluttering, it is about not even wanting/having to buy things you will throw out later.

Why it isn't minimalism?

Analoging is a complete way of life, it just starts off in one wonderful session that kickstarts everything, packing parties is a good idea (quite honestly the best ones I've come across in a long time), but it doesn't do two things:

- it doesn't really stop you from buying unwanted things

- it doesn't convert you into a minimalist

Call it mimicry or adaptation, this is an embellishment of the way of life, we do not let others dictate how we live, neither do we want to be miserable while de-cluttering. 

Yes, it is good to have packing parties and all then blog to show others about it, but if you do not fully believe in the minimalist system in the first place, deep down, you are crying miserably as you rid of your favourite LV handbags or limited edition watches that you store in the safe. Probably two possible outcomes:

- you will go buy it back or something similar as you regret ridding it in the first place

- you become a full minimalist but the start is not ideal, it is like having stockholm syndrome to your new you. Or to sound worse, cutting off your arm and learn how to live 1 handed.

"People (not just kids) today glue themselves to their phones, taking away their phones permanently does nothing. I can spend days without wanting to look at my phone even though it is in my pocket, fully charged with internet data."

How to Start?

Although I say that being Analog is not something you can instantly kickstart or turn on like a switch, it still has to start some where.

Honestly, I would say that I don't even know as I cannot tell you how to live your life. You can start by wet shaving, but if you are in a situation whereby it is not convenient for you, either have better time management or don't do it than be miserable.

I'm not so sure about girls, but if you are a guy, seriously, go out get a proper mechanical watch (quartz is fine too if it is a good quartz piece). Stop buying overpriced stuff like Daniel Wellington or watches from any fashion brand.

It is better to believe it in your mind and let your body catch up to it than the other way round. You can do packing parties, take ideas from other minimalist websites but please treat it as means of complimenting your life than as a fall back plan to get rid of too much stuff you shouldn't have in the first place. 

"If you buy things you do not need, soon you will have to sell things you need."

- Warren Buffett

Where it isn't Minimalism?

This is a big part of being Analog that I love. Some of the things I do is also hobbies, for instance, wet shaving, fountain pens, and watches. Having one or two of it is bare minimum, having 3 or 4 is a small collection and with watches, sky's the limit. 

I feel minimalism is about having bare minimums, whereas being Analog embraces spending money on your own obsessions and hobbies but within reasonable limits of course. You can buy if it makes you happy and you can afford to throw it at $0. That is where I think each of us have to personally believe in this ideology before practising it. This is very much self-discretion, for instance, an Analog guy could have a shelf of whiskey, watches and still be an Analog-er. He gets by, no worries on his savings, he does not need to sell them to raise money for emergencies. That is a wonderful life to live. 

Also, a big part of being Analog is about being honest to yourself, no pretentious-ness, no wanderlust (in Helvetica fronts no less), no escapism, and manage your own expectations. If you love branded stuff, it is ok, but do not expect yourself to completely turn it off in a day, and throwing stuff away or fire-sales is not going to curb it either. you must come to a point where you have it but really do not feel the need to carry it anymore.

Price vs Value

In full disclosure, I own a LV wallet, because after searching around, I find LV to make incredibly durable wallets. mine looks like new after 5 years. I do not like buying a $20 wallet every time it spoils, being Analog also embraces quality. I think that as a guy, you have to have the taste to carry something of quality and class. being analog is most definitely not being a beggar. Also buy owning and using something for a long period of time shows that you can take care of things and is not fickle minded (I do not set my wallet on fire, but I do not baby it much either, I just don't sit on it).

In these days, sometimes good quality things comes with a certain price. For instance, 30 - 40 years back, no one gives two shits about a Rolex submariner. They may be expensive, but it is not as expensive as it is today with inflation factored in. (Inflation is about 4-5 % annually, and Rolex ups the prices at 7-10% annually, so in about 25 years, it is literally twice its 'expensive-ness'. 

"Price is what you pay, value is what you get. "

-Warren Buffett again

Everyone prices things differently, you should not let anyone price anything for you much less a retailer. If in your mind, an item priced at $100, never buy it for more than that, How close or lesser your price is to the item's value depends on individuals. 

As you imagine, I can go on forever, but this is so far I'll go for now...

(that's what she said!)

Have fun

Simple Tactic I Learnt

Last week was Chinese New Year in Singapore so I was quite busy packing up and stuff. On top of that, my family decided to throw out as much things as we can because we will be moving house in the next few months' time.

The thing about packing is, you scold yourself for being so wasteful and more often than not, the reasons not to throw away certain things is because of the price you paid for them or it's lifespan or usage hasn't been utilized completely.

I saw a TED talk about minimalists about two guys who live the minimalist lifestyle (check out their web), everything is about living a meaningful life. Being in Singapore and my general distaste for being pretentious as their entire website is almost in black and white, I do find the ideas they present to be useful most of the time. Their way of life is about important things only, de-clutter, being really rich.

The things they talk about can be embraced in other aspects of your life, such as work, relationships, etc. They provide actual activities to de-clutter or clear away the extra stuff which I think is good rather than being just idealistic and vague. It is not a "see the light" or "feel with your heart", rather it is more of a "try it!" and "see for yourself"

Within the TED talk, the speaker, Joshua, gave a simple method on transforming your life which I find to be extremely effective. *Disclaimer: the below described though is taught by them in the TED talk, but the actual described is how I did it, derived from their talk, How much I derive from their talk is up to you.

To clean out your room, you have to get rid of stuff, like I said earlier, you don't know which. Fret not, this method is to help you find out.

1) Apart from stuff you most certainly will use everyday, pack the rest into boxes, label it, and stack it up outside of your room.

2) Make sure the boxes are being labelled correctly and accurately.

3) Go on live your life as usual, when you find that you need something stowed in the boxes, you take them out, after using, put it back and stack that box under the other boxes. If you need that same item again, you ask yourself, is it important or are you too lazy to take it out and live your life without it.

4) In two weeks time, you should have certain things taken out completely and some still left in the box.

5) Put some of those expensive things or relatively unused items on sale on Carousell or wherever.

6) When it is 1 month since you first packed it into the boxes, those things not posted to sell online or unused can be thrown away completely.

7) When things posted online for a month or so and still no interest, you can throw it away or give to salvation army too.

Please do not recycle stuff into art project as it takes up space and wastes time.

Now CNY is over, you can just start this packing. The fact you need a massive spring cleaning is a sure enough sign that you have too many things.